Dislocation & Re-calibration: What 40 Years of Data Tells Us About Australia's Capital City Markets
Relative value between Australia's capital cities is never static - one market runs ahead, another falls behind and over time the gap closes. The question is whether the current round of dislocation across our capital cities is business as usual, or something more serious.
We went back 40 years to find out. Our latest insight maps every relative-value dislocation across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide since the mid-1980s, 46 in total, and tracks what happened next.
The headline: 85% of those dislocations (39 of 46) have already fully re-calibrated, with a median recovery time of 18 months. Today's dislocation in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane sits well within that historical range.
The outlier is Adelaide, where units are sitting at a record +35.5% overvaluation, the largest and longest-running in our 40-year dataset, and still widening, with no re-calibration yet in sight. Perth tells the opposite story: having just closed out the deepest boom-bust cycle of any capital on record.
Download the full city by city analysis HERE.
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