Insights - Charter Keck Cramer https://charterkc.com.au Property Advisory Firm Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:22:25 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 https://charterkc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/cropped-CKC002_Favicon_192x192-32x32.png Insights - Charter Keck Cramer https://charterkc.com.au 32 32 The Invisible 45%: Why Next Time Buyers Really Drive the Housing Cycle https://charterkc.com.au/the-invisible-45-why-next-time-buyers-really-drive-the-housing-cycle/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-invisible-45-why-next-time-buyers-really-drive-the-housing-cycle Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:06:51 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=20562 July 2026 Housing commentary focuses too heavily on First Home Buyers and Investors. This is because they are easy to measure and politically visible. Charter Keck Cramer research shows that the more important cohort is the Next Time Buyer. These are existing homeowners who re-enter the market to move, resize, relocate, separate, recombine, improve lifestyle, … Continued

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July 2026

Housing commentary focuses too heavily on First Home Buyers and Investors. This is because they are easy to measure and politically visible. Charter Keck Cramer research shows that the more important cohort is the Next Time Buyer. These are existing homeowners who re-enter the market to move, resize, relocate, separate, recombine, improve lifestyle, change schools, respond to work flexibility, or trade up/down/across. Next Time Buyers are the engine of housing liquidity and a key lead indicator of supply. They determine how much established stock is released, how prices transmit between suburbs, dwelling types and price bands, and whether the market has enough depth to support sustainable price discovery.


Introduction

Every time the Reserve Bank of Australia changes the cash rate, every time a government announces a First Home Buyer or Investor grant, or every time a new apartment tower gets approved, all the commentary focuses on the same two groups – the Investor (chasing yields) or First Home Buyer (getting on the property ladder).

However, Charter Keck Cramer’s research shows that for the last 20+ years, the cohort that actually drives Australian housing is the Next Time Buyer. The Next Time Buyer is not chasing an opportunity. They are active because buying and selling a home is what a household does when life demands it.

This insight (which is the first in the series) draws on 20+ years of ABS data (loan commitments, building approvals, building commencements, building completions, prices and rents) to empirically prove that Next Time Buyers are not just the largest cohort. They are the transmission mechanism through which monetary policy, supply signals and price pressures propagate across every segment of the housing market.

This has important implications for government seeking to address the housing crisis. For developers and financiers seeking to understand the direction of the various markets and sub-markets. And every day Australians trying to understand what is happening in the housing market and what the government is trying to do about it.

Definitions

There are three main groups of buyers in the Australian housing market. They all have different roles.

Role of the Next Time Buyer

The first chart in this insight shows the proportion of First Time Buyers, Investors and Next Time Buyers across the Australian housing markets over the last 20+ years.

Since 2004, across every capital city, Next Time Buyers have held between 37.8% and 50.0% of the market (with an average of 44.9%). This is not a recent trend. This has been the structural reality through the GFC, through the APRA lending crackdown, through the COVID stimulus boom, and through the sharpest rate tightening cycle in a generation.

By way of contrast, the First Home Buyer share has swung from 12.8% to 30.6% whilst the Investor share has swung from 20.4% to 44.4%. These have been driven by the introduction and subsequent removal of various incentives for each cohort. As well as rate changes and lending changes aimed at these respective cohorts.

Proportion of Buyers – Australian Capital Cities

Charter Keck Cramer has also analysed the correlation between the various buyer cohorts and the approvals data. The second chart shows the correlation between Next Time Buyer activity and building approvals across the Australian housing markets over the last 20+ years.

The most important finding is that Next Time Buyers are the strongest and most immediate leading indicator of new dwelling approvals, and the effect is concentrated in houses rather than units.

Whilst we have not shared the other charts as part of this insight, the research also showed that First Home Buyers follow rather than lead the cycle. Additionally, First Home Buyer loan growth correlates most with house approvals two quarters later. This suggests their activity is driven more by affordability as well as incentive-driven timing, than by initiating new housing supply.

Finally, the research showed that Investors’ relationship with unit approvals was more persistent than with houses. This is consistent with Investors buying into apartment and townhouse projects already in the pipeline, rather than initiating new detached-house approvals.

Next Time Buyers vs Approvals – Australian Capital Cities

Why is this relevant?

When a Next Time Buyer purchases, they often also list and sell their existing home. Put simply, they are critical to market liquidity.

When Next Time Buyers stop moving, the market can become illiquid. This may happen because of high interest rates, mortgage lock-in, stamp duty friction, uncertainty about prices, low confidence, lack of suitable stock to move into, construction delays or simply poor affordability.

By way of contrast, when Next Time Buyers become more active, the market usually experiences higher listing volumes, higher sales volumes, better price discovery, more auction activity, more competition in middle and upper price bands and greater transaction chains across the housing ladder. This can produce a healthier and more liquid market because buyers have more choice and sellers have more confidence.

At present Next Time Buyers have slowed down purchasing activity in many states and territories. The reasons for this do vary between the states and territories but the main factors have been summarised above.

This will translate into lower levels of future supply as well as lower pricing. Both are undesirable. Australia is already falling dramatically behind the Housing Accord dwelling targets, and the analysis suggests this is going to become even more pronounced over the next 12 months. Furthermore, new dwelling prices are linked to established house prices, and Charter Keck Cramer research shows that in many sub-markets established pricing needs to recalibrate upwards before new dwellings can be feasibly delivered to the market.

All industry participants need to regularly monitor the Next Time Buyer segment of the housing market. This metric is a critical lead indicator of where the market is heading over the next 6-12 months.  For the Federal and State Governments, attention needs to be paid to the various strategies to encourage the Next Time Buyer market to become more active. The number one change would be replacing stamp duty with a broad-based annual land tax. The Federal Government needs to assist the states with this transition as we have argued in previous insights. This is the first step towards improving liquidity, facilitating new pricing discovery, increasing the availability of stock and ultimately helping the market recalibrate.

As always, Charter Keck Cramer is here to assist with forward-looking and evidence-based research.


If you want more information, please don’t hesitate to reach out to our Research team.

Richard Temlett

Nicolo Traverso

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Australia’s Rental Market at a Critical Turning Point https://charterkc.com.au/australias-rental-market-at-a-critical-turning-point/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=australias-rental-market-at-a-critical-turning-point Thu, 25 Jun 2026 03:34:01 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=20245 June 2026 The rental markets in Australian capital cities are about to enter a period that housing policy makers need to carefully monitor. The key insight from our analysis is that changes to rental growth or vacancy rates due to the delivery of additional supply is a positive policy outcome. These same changes to rental … Continued

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June 2026


The rental markets in Australian capital cities are about to enter a period that housing policy makers need to carefully monitor.

The key insight from our analysis is that changes to rental growth or vacancy rates due to the delivery of additional supply is a positive policy outcome. These same changes to rental growth or vacancy rates due to a structural breakdown in demand, however, is a major red flag that will need immediate government attention.


Introduction

There has been a lot of recent discussion about auction clearance rates (and ultimately dwelling prices) given the announcement of the Federal Budget, rising interest rates and the war in the Middle East.

There has however been comparatively little commentary on the rental market. Recently, various data providers including SQM Research, Domain and Cotality released key rental data statistics – particularly around vacancy rates and rental growth.

This insight highlights that the rental markets are about to enter a critical period that housing policy makers need to carefully monitor. Changes to rental growth or vacancy rates due to the delivery of additional supply is a positive policy outcome. These same changes to rental growth or vacancy rates due to a structural breakdown in demand, however, is a major red flag that will need immediate government attention.

Understanding the rental market

A simple, yet effective way to analyse the rental market is to consider the vacancy rate. A rental market is in equilibrium when the vacancy rate is broadly between 2% to 3%. At this point demand matches supply and rental growth is nominal or flat.

Additionally, in a balanced rental market, there is an inverse relationship between the vacancy rate and rental growth. A vacancy rate below 2% suggests a rental market is undersupplied and there will be outsized rental growth. The inverse is true when vacancy rates are above 3% with rental growth likely to underperform (or be negative).

Much like in the “For Sale” market, renters make trade-offs at different points in the market and economic cycles. These trade-offs include compromises between competing priorities such as rents vs location, size vs affordability, quality vs cost, or commuting time vs housing costs.

Dislocated rental markets

Prior to the release of the Federal Budget in May, every Australian capital city (other than Canberra) had chronically undersupplied rental markets. In fact, many of these rental markets were actually shrinking due to the increase or introduction of various taxes, charges and legislative requirements which was causing investors to divest their rental stock and exit the market.

The Federal Budget changes to negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT) are the biggest structural shift to Australia’s residential investment landscape in more than a decade. The policy intent is clear: redirect investor capital from established stock into new construction.

Whilst this is well intentioned, our view is that these changes fail to fully consider the interrelationships and timing between the demand for dwellings and the supply of dwellings. Demand is very elastic and can change almost immediately, whilst new supply is inelastic and takes several months to several years to be delivered.

Furthermore, existing investors who sell established investment properties sell them to owner-occupiers who, by definition, will not rent them out. This reduces the rental pool.

With Australia’s national rental vacancy rate at 1.2% in April, we cannot afford to lose rental supply at present.

So what does this all mean?

Our views are that the carve-out for new construction is the right instinct, however the timing simply doesn’t work in the short term. The uncomfortable reality that few in government want to acknowledge is that it’s going to make the rental crisis worse before it makes it better.

To be clear, this doesn’t mean that we feel that the reforms are wrong. After studying the markets, we note that structural reform always has transition costs and periods, and the long-term case for redirecting capital to new supply makes sense.

Policy makers do, however, need to be acutely aware of the short-term impacts of these changes to the rental markets and the fact that they may not behave as they would in a balanced environment.

Red flags to watch out for

Charter Keck Cramer have studied the rental markets through various market cycles and across all capital cities. We have observed with interest that the recent SQM Research statistics in fact show that there are certain sub-markets where vacancy rates are decreasing whilst rents are also decreasing. There are also other sub-markets where vacancy rates are increasing whilst rents are also increasing. 

As set out above, this should not occur in a balanced housing market. The explanation is that the rental market is potentially breaking down on the demand side.

Most alarmingly, there are sub-markets such as Hendra (Brisbane), Summer Hill (Sydney), Hawthorn (Melbourne), Clayfield (Brisbane) and Lane Cove (Sydney) where vacancy rates are falling and rents are also falling. These sub-markets show signs of affordability ceilings being reached and are an example of demand destruction which is a very concerning structural pattern.

On the other hand, there are sub-markets such as Vaucluse (Sydney), Double Bay (Sydney), Balwyn (Melbourne) and Annerley (Brisbane) where vacancy rates have increased whilst rents have also increased. These are more luxury markets where wealthier tenants are vacating, and these properties are slowly being re-let at even higher rents.

Implications for policy makers

This is important behaviour for policy makers to closely monitor. Vacancy and rents changing through demand destruction is not the same as vacancy and rents changing through supply improvement.

One of these outcomes improves conditions for renters. The other just transfers the stress. Displaced tenants become crowded households, and crowded households become an affordability statistic that doesn’t show up in vacancy rates.

To conclude, the rental markets are about to enter a critical period that housing policy makers need to carefully monitor.  The data released over the next 6 to 12 months is critical to watch and will highlight if there are sub-markets with demand destruction which need to be addressed immediately.

As always, Charter Keck Cramer is here to assist with forward-looking and evidence-based research.


If you want more information, please don’t hesitate to reach out to our Research team.

Richard Temlett

Nicolo Traverso

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Tax Reforms to future-proof Australia’s Housing Market https://charterkc.com.au/tax-reforms-to-future-proof-australias-housing-market/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=tax-reforms-to-future-proof-australias-housing-market Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:45:20 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=19534 23 April 2026 There is real merit in making changes to the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount and Negative Gearing in Australia. Given we have a national housing crisis, this debate needs to include the State and Territory Governments, and it is essential to also bring Stamp Duty, Land Tax and the various Foreign Investor … Continued

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23 April 2026


There is real merit in making changes to the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount and Negative Gearing in Australia.

Given we have a national housing crisis, this debate needs to include the State and Territory Governments, and it is essential to also bring Stamp Duty, Land Tax and the various Foreign Investor Taxes & Charges into this discussion as all these taxes and charges are interrelated with each other.

Any changes need to have an evidence base, be properly explained to the public, protect the vulnerable, be phased in to avoid significant market distortions and must encourage new dwelling supply.


There has been a large amount of recent commentary about the potential changes to the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and Negative Gearing that may be announced at the Federal Budget next month.

Charter Keck Cramer’s view is that this is a debate which deserves the fullest possible analysis — one that goes beyond changes to CGT or Negative Gearing at the Federal level and also examines the critical role that Stamp Duty and Land Tax reforms at the State and Territory level could play. These are deeply interconnected parts of the same system, and a comprehensive public conversation about all of them is both timely and necessary.

It is amazing to reflect that in 2019 the Labour Government proposed changes to CGT and Negative Gearing and it was a major reason for their election loss. These reforms were, and still are, incredibly politically sensitive.  In 2026 the Labour Government is proposing similar changes to GCT and Negative Gearing and Charter Keck Cramer’s view is that it is highly likely that they will be made in May this year.

Much of this change in sentiment is driven by the change in the dynamics of the voter base. This has started to play out at the State level with various Governments attempting to make dramatic planning system changes to address the supply-side issues that previous Governments on both sides of the political divide have ignored for the last 20 years.

Charter Keck Cramer’s views are that we are at a seminal moment in time where we need to have a well-informed debate about the merits of these tax changes.  This insight endeavours to start this discussion.

Key Concepts and Statistics

There are a number of key concepts and statistics that need to be explored to enable us as voters, as homeowners or renters, as parents and grandparents or as children and grandchildren to form a balanced view of the merits of some of these changes.

Some of these are summarised in this section of the article.

1.1 Taxes and Charges

Capital Gains Tax and Negative Gearing

Source: Treasury & Parliamentary Budget Office Estimates, ABS Tax Statistics, Budget Papers (various), Charter Keck Cramer.
NOTE: some of these figures are best estimates based on the documents and reports reviewed and used by the various levels of Government.

Our readers need to be aware that Australia has one of the most generous GCT and negative gearing systems in the world. Our research shows that countries that also offer various forms of CGT discounts include the USA, the UK, Canda and Japan whilst countries that also offer various forms of negative gearing concessions include Germany, Canada, Japan and Norway.

1.2 New vs Established Dwellings

On average, approx. 85-90% of investors purchase established dwellings in Australia whilst approx. 10-15% purchase new dwellings. This is a structural pattern rather than cyclical when the long-term averages are analysed. These figures are higher for high density apartments in various locations across our Capital Cities where investors comprise closer to approx. 30-50% of new dwellings.

Research shows that Foreign Investors represent approx. 2% to 3% of the total transactions each year (this peaked at 3% to 4% in the mid-2010s). Importantly though, Foreign Investors often account for approx. 30% – 40% of new dwellings each year in Australia which underscores their critical role in new housing supply.

1.3 Impact on Prices and Rents

There have been various studies carried out to show that there will in fact be a nominal impact on prices and rents of existing dwellings should the CGT or Negative Gearing settings be changed. These studies show that the impact to prices over the medium term will be an approx. decrease of -1% to -5% whilst to rents over the medium term it will be approx. increase of 1% to 4%.

This of course comes down to how the settings are changed but the public need not necessarily fear that prices of their existing homes will dramatically fall or that investors will completely exit the housing market and rents dramatically increase.

1.4 Current Changing Voter Base

The table below sets out a summary of the changing voter base across Australia.

At the time of the next Federal Election in 2028 approx. 38% – 40% of the voter base will comprise Gen Z and Millennials. Many of these voters will be renters and are at the coal face of the housing and costs of living crisis.

This shift from the Baby Boomer and Gen X voter base to the younger cohorts is a primary reason why Charter Keck Cramer has confidence that the next decade will see significant reforms which will be in response to a deeply dissatisfied, and now significant proportion, of the voter base who are not getting their needs met though the housing system.

Major Problems that aren’t going away

In 2026 we have a tax system that is badly out of date and simply not fit for purpose. Analysis of everyday Australians shows that almost every participant in the industry now has problems and none of these households are in fact being provided with the appropriate housing that meets their needs.

Younger generations are locked out of the housing market and are deeply dissatisfied that they are not being afforded the same opportunities as their parents and grandparents. At the other end of the spectrum are the older generations who are not able to downsize and age in place in appropriate forms of housing, nor are they able to live close to their children and grandchildren. Finally, they are also extremely worried about their inheritance and how that is going to be impacted by the current tax system.

Finally, we now have several State Governments who are deeply in debt and are not able to raise reliable forms of revenue on a consistent basis to assist with budget repair or assist the development industry will delivering new forms of housing supply.

The major culprit is of course Stamp Duty. This is one of the most inefficient taxes and distorts markets and buyer behaviour. It is also dependant on the property cycle, relies on transactions and is hence volatile.

By way of contrast, research shows that Land Tax is one of the most efficient taxes and not subject to the volatility of Stamp Duty. This is because it is levied on the value of the underlying land value of a property and not reliant on transactions or market turnover.

Finally, CGT and Negative Gearing benefit higher income households the most. This is because the benefits increase with marginal tax rates. The research also shows that these two tax concessions do encourage investors to bid up the prices of established dwellings often at the expense of first-home buyers.

Ideas for win-wins

As identified above, Charter Keck Cramer’s views are that over the next decade Australia will see dramatic reforms as the deeply dissatisfied voter base seek solutions and leadership from the officials they have elected. All sides of politics need to take heed of the major swings given the deeply dissatisfied segments of the voter market.

What are the numbers?

Our research shows that broadly, the total value of the unimproved residential land in Australia is approx. $7.7T.

Our high-level calculations show that a broad-based annual Land Tax applied to all residential property across Australia could raise approx. $38.5B to $57.8B per year. This is based on a 0.5% or 0.75% annual tax rate on the estimated $7.7T value of unimproved residential land in Australia.

The table below sets out a summary of the current numbers as they relate to housing in Australia. We have included the proposed numbers for an annual Land Tax for the sake of comparison.

Land Tax for the sake of comparison.

Capital Gains Tax and Negative Gearing

Source: Treasury & Parliamentary Budget Office Estimates, ABS Tax Statistics, Budget Papers (various), Charter Keck Cramer.
NOTE: some of these figures are best estimates based on the documents and reports reviewed and used by the various levels of Government.

Whilst Stamp Duty is a significant source of revenue for the States and Territories, it is important to understand that a broad-based annual Land Tax could in fact replace this source of revenue. Subject to the various changes that could be made, the revenue that could potentially be raised from these reforms could be used for various solutions which include:

  1. Broader tax reform.
  2. Infrastructure delivery.
  3. Social and affordable housing delivery.
  4. Budget repair.
  5. Subsiding the costs of delivery to make new housing feasible.

What are the non-negotiables?

Any changes need to be designed so as to avoid crashing the markets. They don’t need to be blunt but rather stepped changes, grandfathered and better targeted to achieving the goals of new housing supply.  For example, negative gearing could be restricted to new housing supply and this could be paired with supply-side incentives which encourages net housing additions.

Governments must not do anything to negatively impact new supply at this point in the cycle. This will undermine the National Housing Accord targets further. In fact, there is an argument that at this point in the cycle, and to offset the dramatic increase in the costs of delivery, the incentives could be increased to stimulate new housing supply.

Government must also not do anything with retrospective changes as this undermines trust. Finally, Government must be aware of “double taxation” for various transactions that have already occurred.

Replacing Stamp Duty with Land Tax – A pragmatic idea that works

A major idea that ought to be fully explored is for the Federal Government to work with the States and Territories to replace Stamp Duty with a broad-based annual Land Tax. To do this, both the CGT and Negative Gearing could be reformed with the revenue from GCT and Negative gearing used to subsize this transition over a period of 10 to 20 years.

Replacing Stamp Duty with Land Tax will lead to major productivity gains, better utilisation of housing stock and more stable revenue for governments. It’s a win-win for everyone. This reform aligns with the recommendations by Dr Ken Henry and are also in line with OECD best practice principles.

These reforms need to be implemented over 10 to 20 years, via a stepped change through various market cycles. If designed correctly, the figures set out above have attempted to show that there is the possibility for these changes to minimise any distortions to the market and could even be revenue neutral.

Final Thoughts

This article has highlighted that the current tax settings as they apply to the housing market are not working as efficiently as they could be. We are at a moment in time where we need to have a fully informed debate about how these settings could be changed so that the system is fit for purpose and produces better outcomes for all residents of Australia.

Given the change in voter base, our views are that significant changes are inevitable given the dissatisfaction with the current Federal, State and Local policies in addressing both the housing crisis as well as the cost of living crisis in Australia.

Now is the time to act and Charter Keck Cramer is here to support these debates with thought leadership.

If you want more information, please reach out to Richard Temlett.

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National State of the Market Report H2 2025 https://charterkc.com.au/national-state-of-the-market-report-h2-2025/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=national-state-of-the-market-report-h2-2025 Fri, 13 Mar 2026 04:28:56 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=18829 This is the official release of Charter Keck Cramer’s National State of the Market – Residential Build to Sell (BTS) and Build to Rent (BTR) Apartments, H2 2025 report for key metropolitan areas. Report Overview Our Research team has consolidated our market-leading insights into a National State of the Market Report, delivering a comprehensive overview of Australia’s … Continued

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This is the official release of Charter Keck Cramer’s National State of the Market – Residential Build to Sell (BTS) and Build to Rent (BTR) Apartments, H2 2025 report for key metropolitan areas.

Report Overview

Our Research team has consolidated our market-leading insights into a National State of the Market Report, delivering a comprehensive overview of Australia’s apartment market.

Drawing on our extensive national database, this report examines key indicators including apartment releases, commencements and completions, while offering deep insights into each capital city’s performance. Notable trends and broader market drivers are also analysed to provide essential context at both the national and metropolitan levels.

To view the digital report and download your free copy, complete the form below.


Executive Summary

Welcome to State of the Market H2-2025 Build to Sell (“BTS”) and Build to Rent (“BTR”) apartment market report.

Link Between Established Markets and New Housing Supply

Our readers are reminded that there is a strong and consistent relationship between established housing markets and the feasibility of delivering new housing supply across Australia. Charter Keck Cramer Research confirms that prices for new dwellings (apartments, townhouses and house & land products) are linked to the median house price of the established market in each capital city. As established house prices move, the achievable price points for new housing move with them.

Financial Viability and Housing Trade-Offs

For new medium and higher density housing supply to be financially viable, established detached house prices must reach levels that support these forms of more compact and affordable housing. This dynamic has shaped housing outcomes for decades and across multiple market cycles. It reflects a long-standing housing “trade‑off”, where households make compromises between competing priorities such as price vs location, size vs affordability, quality vs cost, ownership vs renting, or commuting time vs housing costs. These trade-offs continue to drive demand patterns and product typologies in all housing markets.

Diverging Market Performance Across Cities

Over the past five years, cities such as Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Perth and Adelaide have experienced strong and sustained growth in established house prices. This growth has lifted realisable revenues for new dwellings and in particular made apartment development increasingly viable in these markets. In contrast, Melbourne and Canberra have experienced flat or negative house price growth, while Sydney has seen only modest house price growth. In many sub‑markets across these three cities, realizable revenues for new dwellings remain below the current cost of delivery, rendering new supply financially unfeasible.

Rising Delivery Costs

At the same time, the cost of delivering new housing has risen sharply across all dwelling types (apartments, townhouses and house & land). Key drivers include a high and growing burden of taxes and charges, increasingly complex and over regulated planning and building systems, declining construction productivity relative to 20 years ago and higher labour and material costs.

National Cost of Delivery Crisis

Charter Keck Cramer’s research identifies a systemic cost of delivery crisis across all Australian cities. This represents the most significant barrier to addressing the national housing shortage and requires substantial reform from all levels of government.

2026 Market Outlook: Short-Term and Long-Term Drivers

Looking ahead to 2026, Charter Keck Cramer expects ongoing tension between short term cyclical pressures and longer-term structural forces. Short term challenges include higher interest rates and subdued consumer sentiment, while longer term drivers include chronic undersupply of new dwellings and shifting housing preferences across generations. The structural fundamentals supporting medium and higher density living are evident across all cities and are expected to strengthen over the next decade as demographic change accelerates.

Affordability Constraints and Housing Choices

As housing affordability thresholds are reached, markets are increasingly characterised by a mismatch between achievable revenues and household purchasing power. The trade-off thematic is clear: households will rent for longer and, when buying, increasingly opt for more affordable medium and high-density housing. In this environment, Build to Rent is expected to play a growing role, with institutional capital better positioned to absorb risk and deliver supply than traditional Build to Sell apartment models.

Expectations for 2026

Overall, Charter Keck Cramer expects 2026 to be an improvement on 2025, supported by greater certainty and market adaptation to the new operating environment. While interest rates are expected to rise and lending serviceability buffers remain in place, price falls are not anticipated due to the widening gap between established housing values and the cost of delivering new supply, which is expected to place a floor under prices.

Construction Capacity Risks

A key ongoing risk across all markets remains builder availability and construction capacity. This is particularly acute in Southeast Queensland, where pressures are expected to intensify in the lead‑up to the Brisbane 2032 Olympics.


Report Access and Future Engagement

We hope you find this new version of the report useful. The report will be produced on a quarterly basis whilst Charter Keck Cramer will be presenting an update and outlook on the Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane markets at individual events in each city in August.

Should you require a more detailed analysis or presentation please reach out to the team of experts who would be happy to assist you with your queries.

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BTS & BTR Apartment Housing Supply Australia https://charterkc.com.au/build-to-sell-build-to-rent-apartment-housing-supply-australia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=build-to-sell-build-to-rent-apartment-housing-supply-australia Tue, 02 Dec 2025 03:33:31 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=18201 2 December 2025 Australia’s capital cities have grown by around 1.2 million people in each five-year period since 2015, yet housing supply Australia-wide has not kept pace, falling from 269,500 completions between 2015–2019 to just 149,300 between 2020–2024. While population growth from 2025–2029 is expected to remain similarly strong, even the notional pipeline of 300,700 … Continued

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2 December 2025

Australia’s capital cities have grown by around 1.2 million people in each five-year period since 2015, yet housing supply Australia-wide has not kept pace, falling from 269,500 completions between 2015–2019 to just 149,300 between 2020–2024. While population growth from 2025–2029 is expected to remain similarly strong, even the notional pipeline of 300,700 apartments – assuming every project proceeds – will still leave most markets chronically undersupplied. Charter Keck Cramer stresses that without coordinated, meaningful reform across tax, labour, planning and immigration settings, Australia will continue to miss Federal and State housing targets. However, if governments act decisively, the private sector is ready to respond and help address the long-term housing crisis.


Between 2015 to 2019 the population of Australia’s capital cities increased by 1,198,400 people. During this period there were 269,500 apartments delivered.

Over 2020 to 2024 the population of Australia’s capital cities increased by 1,196,200 people. And during this period there were 149,300 apartments delivered.

Projected Demand vs. Expected Apartment Delivery

Based on the current government projections, over 2025 to 2029 the population of Australia’s capital cities is forecast to increase by 1,169,200 people. Based on Charter Keck Cramer’s forecasts, and assuming all projects are able to achieve presales and receive funding and then get built, there are estimated to be 300,700 apartments notionally to be delivered.

Map outlining housing supply Australia
The Need for Coordinated Policy Reform

Most markets are chronically starved of new supply. It is absolutely critical that the Federal, State and Local governments come together and enact meaningful tax, labour, (further) planning and immigration reform. Until this occurs, supply at scale is not going to be able to be mobilised, which means Australia will substantially undershoot the various Federal and State housing targets. Conversely, should governments come together, make decisions that transcend political affiliations and enact meaningful reform it is evident that the private market is ready and waiting to respond to this generational challenge.

Charter Keck Cramer urges policy makers to make the correct long-term decisions to address the housing supply Australia crisis which is a long-term problem.

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CBD Office Market Commentary H2 2025 https://charterkc.com.au/cbd-office-market-commentary-h2-2025/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=cbd-office-market-commentary-h2-2025 Mon, 17 Nov 2025 03:29:23 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=17900 18 November 2025 Australia’s CBD office market across Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are showing early signs of stabilisation, with a clear “flight to quality” emerging across all major capitals. Tenants are prioritising premium spaces and investors are navigating a high interest rate environment. Sydney office Market The Sydney office market is gradually improving, led by … Continued

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18 November 2025

Australia’s CBD office market across Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are showing early signs of stabilisation, with a clear “flight to quality” emerging across all major capitals. Tenants are prioritising premium spaces and investors are navigating a high interest rate environment.


Sydney office Market

The Sydney office market is gradually improving, led by premium-grade assets and infrastructure investment, though high vacancy and elevated incentives continue to challenge recovery.

Melbourne Office Market

Melbourne’s office sector is showing tentative recovery signs, supported by stabilising rents and upcoming infrastructure projects, yet high vacancy and subdued investment activity persist.

Brisbane Office Market

Brisbane’s office market remains resilient, with strong demand for premium spaces and limited new supply underpinning steady conditions despite softer yields and sustained incentives. 

For a detailed breakdown of what the latest data reveals across these CBD office markets, download the full report below.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD


Get in touch with our Commercial Valuations team

Mark Willers – National Director

Mathew Young – Director

Harry Davidson – Associate Director

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Addressing the Challenges in Melbourne’s Apartment Market https://charterkc.com.au/addressing-the-challenges-in-melbournes-apartment-market/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=addressing-the-challenges-in-melbournes-apartment-market Wed, 12 Nov 2025 23:01:35 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=17884 13 November 2025 Melbourne’s Apartment Market is facing a significant challenge, with around 8,000 unsold apartments built between 2020 and 2024 due to pandemic disruptions and lockdowns. Government-imposed taxes and charges on foreign buyers have further dampened demand, while rising delivery costs mean new apartments in 2025 will need to be priced roughly 30% higher … Continued

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13 November 2025

Melbourne’s Apartment Market is facing a significant challenge, with around 8,000 unsold apartments built between 2020 and 2024 due to pandemic disruptions and lockdowns. Government-imposed taxes and charges on foreign buyers have further dampened demand, while rising delivery costs mean new apartments in 2025 will need to be priced roughly 30% higher than in 2020. Charter Keck Cramer highlights that targeted government intervention, such as reducing taxes and charges or offering incentives, will be critical to absorb existing stock, stimulate demand, and support the sustainable delivery of new apartments.


In March this year Charter Keck Cramer highlighted that Melbourne’s apartment market (Build to Sell) was facing a significant challenge, with 8,000 unsold apartments constructed between 2020 and 2024. This issue stems from the last investor-led cycle, where numerous apartments were presold before the pandemic and subsequently delivered during Melbourne’s lockdowns. The lockdowns, combined with movement restrictions and border closures, considerably dampened occupier demand.

Since 2017, and increasingly since 2022, the imposition of additional taxes and charges on foreign buyers of new apartments has further complicated the market dynamics. Despite these obstacles, our research indicates that foreign investors remain highly attracted to “Brand Melbourne.” However, the existing foreign taxes and charges are significant deterrents to their investment.

The Outlook

Looking ahead, our research suggests that new apartments in 2025 will need to be priced approximately +30% higher than those in 2020. This price hike is due to the rising costs of delivery, with taxes and charges now comprising 30-40% of the total expense of new apartments. As long as the current stock remains unsold in various sub-markets, it will be challenging to deliver new supply at the necessary 2025 price points.

Both the government and developers are keen to stimulate new apartment supply. Developers are particularly desperate to sell the existing unsold stock to allow the market to recalibrate and support the new pricing structure.

Our position is that government lockdowns have distorted Melbourne’s apartment market, and government intervention is essential to resolve this issue.

Impact of Stamp Duty Concessions on Apartment Uptake

From June 2021 to June 2022, the City of Melbourne Local Government Area introduced stamp duty concessions (or exemptions) for unsold completed apartments. As the chart below shows, this incentive led to a strong uptake of apartments. However, once the incentive was withdrawn, demand dropped off significantly.

Melbourne's Apartment Market


It is evident that the government has a pivotal role in reactivating Melbourne’s apartment market. By removing one or more of the taxes and charges currently imposed on these apartments, the government can help facilitate their absorption into the market. This approach would be beneficial for all stakeholders, including the government, developers, foreign investors and ultimately occupiers (buyers or renters), as it would act as a catalyst for new supply.

In conclusion, government intervention is crucial to address the unsold apartment stock and support the delivery of new apartments at sustainable price points. Removing the existing taxes and charges would not only stimulate demand but also contribute to the long-term health of Melbourne’s apartment market.

Richard Temlett, National Executive Director | Research

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Queensland’s Industrial Market Holds Firm Amid Shifting Conditions https://charterkc.com.au/queenslands-industrial-market-holds-firm-amid-shifting-conditions/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=queenslands-industrial-market-holds-firm-amid-shifting-conditions Wed, 12 Nov 2025 04:09:12 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=17857 12 November 2025 To better understand current trends shaping Queensland’s industrial property sector, we spoke with our National Director of Commercial Industrial Valuations, Emma Carter. The Queensland industrial property market continues to demonstrate resilience, with conditions stabilising after several years of rapid growth. Land values remain near record highs, supported by a long-term undersupply of … Continued

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12 November 2025

To better understand current trends shaping Queensland’s industrial property sector, we spoke with our National Director of Commercial Industrial Valuations, Emma Carter.

The Queensland industrial property market continues to demonstrate resilience, with conditions stabilising after several years of rapid growth. Land values remain near record highs, supported by a long-term undersupply of suitably zoned and serviced industrial land across Southeast Queensland. While price escalation has slowed, strong fundamentals – particularly population growth, infrastructure investment and the expansion of logistics and manufacturing activity – continue to underpin sustained demand.

Occupier enquiry levels remain healthy, led by logistics, warehousing and building-related industries. However, tenants are becoming increasingly selective, favouring well-connected sites with efficient layouts, higher clearances and strong sustainability credentials. New facilities are now expected to incorporate energy-efficient lighting, solar generation and improved water management systems as standard, with landlords investing in these upgrades to meet corporate ESG requirements and maintain tenant retention.

Development activity has moderated due to increased construction costs and cautious lending conditions, resulting in fewer speculative projects. Most new supply is tied to pre-commitments or owner-occupier developments, particularly within established corridors such as Brisbane’s South and Western precincts, Logan and Ipswich. Despite a modest rise in vacancy levels, available stock remains tight by historical standards.

From an investment perspective, pricing for well-located industrial assets has largely stabilised, with yields flattening after the outward movement seen through 2023 and early 2024. Investor confidence is gradually returning, supported by expectations of lower interest rates in 2026 and the enduring appeal of the sector’s strong income performance and limited future land supply.

Overall, Queensland’s industrial market remains one of the most resilient and tightly held asset classes nationally, with quality and sustainability continuing to define market competitiveness.

For expert advice on Queensland’s industrial property market or to discuss a professional valuation, contact Emma Carter today.

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National State of the Market Report H1 2025 https://charterkc.com.au/national-state-of-the-market-report-h1-2025/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=national-state-of-the-market-report-h1-2025 Wed, 10 Sep 2025 22:09:08 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=17397 This is the official release of Charter Keck Cramer’s National State of the Market – Residential Build to Sell (BTS) and Build to Rent (BTR) Apartments, H1 2025 report for key metropolitan areas. Our Research team has consolidated our market-leading insights into a national report, delivering a comprehensive overview of Australia’s apartment market. Drawing on … Continued

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This is the official release of Charter Keck Cramer’s National State of the Market – Residential Build to Sell (BTS) and Build to Rent (BTR) Apartments, H1 2025 report for key metropolitan areas.

Our Research team has consolidated our market-leading insights into a national report, delivering a comprehensive overview of Australia’s apartment market.

Drawing on our extensive national database, this report examines key indicators including apartment releases, commencements and completions, while offering deep insights into each capital city’s performance. Notable trends and broader market drivers are also analysed to provide essential context at both the national and metropolitan levels.

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Prestige Residential Markets – Australia’s Luxury Suburbs https://charterkc.com.au/prestige-residential-markets-australias-luxury-suburbs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=prestige-residential-markets-australias-luxury-suburbs Tue, 26 Aug 2025 22:48:29 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=17292 27 August 2025 We sat down with Scott Braid, Director | Prestige Residential Valuations at Charter Keck Cramer to discuss prestige residential market trends across Australia, with insights from Sydney’s Northbridge market What makes suburbs like Northbridge (New South Wales) representative of Australia’s prestige residential market landscape? Northbridge exemplifies the key characteristics we see across … Continued

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27 August 2025

We sat down with Scott Braid, Director | Prestige Residential Valuations at Charter Keck Cramer to discuss prestige residential market trends across Australia, with insights from Sydney’s Northbridge market

What makes suburbs like Northbridge (New South Wales) representative of Australia’s prestige residential market landscape?

Northbridge exemplifies the key characteristics we see across Australia’s prestige residential markets. Located on Sydney’s Lower North Shore, it exhibits many factors which influence luxury residential value: a prestige and reputable location, natural amenity and scarcity.

What’s particularly interesting about Northbridge is how it features the premium suburb dynamics we observe nationally. Like Toorak in Melbourne or Cottesloe in Perth, it combines established reputation with limited housing stock and strong family appeal. The suburb’s median house price of around $5 million places it firmly in the prestige category, but more importantly, it shows the consistent demand patterns we see across Australia’s top-tier residential markets.

The recent $42.75 million sale on Coolawin Road – nearly doubling the previous Northbridge record – reflects the broader trend we’re seeing in Australia’s prestige markets, where exceptional properties are achieving unprecedented prices.

How do waterfront premiums in markets like Northbridge compare internationally and across Australia?

This is where Australia truly stands out globally. Recent research from McGrath Research (Feb 2025) shows Sydney’s waterfront premium reached 124% in 2024 – the highest globally, surpassing prestigious locations like Miami (93%) and the Bahamas (72%). Northbridge’s waterfront streets like Coolawin, Minimbah and Dorset Roads are perfect examples of this phenomenon.

Across Australia, we’re seeing significant waterfront premiums, though Sydney leads the charge:

  • Sydney: 124% premium (up from 95% in 2019)
  • Brisbane: 56% premium (up from 45% in 2019)
  • Melbourne: 41% premium (up from 27% in 2019)

What makes Northbridge particularly valuable is its Middle Harbour frontage – absolute waterfront properties with deep water access and uninterrupted harbour views. These characteristics are increasingly rare across all Australian capital cities, with waterfront homes often staying within families for generations.

The scarcity factor cannot be overstated. Despite Australia’s extensive coastline, true waterfront properties with the amenity and accessibility of suburbs like Northbridge remain exceptionally limited in supply.

What does the ultra-high-end market activity tell us about Australia’s luxury property landscape?

The ultra-luxury market is showing remarkable resilience and growth across Australia’s major cities. Northbridge’s $42.75 million sale this year is part of a broader pattern of record-breaking transactions nationwide.

We recently saw Australia’s property record set with the $150 million sale of ‘Coonac’ in Melbourne’s Toorak, while Sydney’s ‘Wingadal’ in Point Piper is currently listed with expectations above $200 million. These transactions demonstrate that at the very top end, Australia’s prestige property market is attracting significant capital, both domestic and international.

Currently, six properties in Northbridge are publicly advertised above $5 million, but like other prestige markets across Australia, many properties are transacting off-market. This trend is particularly pronounced in established luxury precincts across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, where privacy and exclusivity drive transaction methodology.

The velocity of price growth in these markets has been substantial – Northbridge has seen approximately 50% median value growth over five years, which aligns with premium suburb performance across Australia’s major capitals.

How are demolition and rebuild trends affecting premium suburbs nationally?

This is a defining characteristic of Australia’s established premium suburbs. In Northbridge, we’re observing increasing demolition of more modest, original dwellings to make way for contemporary architect-designed homes. This trend is mirrored across premium suburbs nationally.

The pattern is consistent whether you’re looking at Toorak’s heritage overlays, New Farm’s character housing or Cottesloe’s beachside cottages. Families are choosing to build bespoke homes that meet contemporary lifestyle requirements – multiple bedrooms, distinct living zones, dedicated work-from-home spaces and integrated indoor-outdoor living.

This rebuild activity is enhancing overall suburb values. When a $2-3 million original home is demolished and replaced with a $6-8 million contemporary residence, it lifts the entire street’s value proposition. We see this effect particularly strongly in family-oriented prestige markets across all capital cities.

The key driver is changing family lifestyle requirements. Premium suburb buyers across Australia are seeking homes configured for modern family life, often with multi-generational living capabilities, which older housing stock doesn’t readily provide.

What role do amenities and community infrastructure play in sustaining premium suburb values?

Premium suburbs across Australia share common infrastructure characteristics that underpin their value sustainability. Northbridge demonstrates this with Northbridge Plaza shopping, quality primary schools and the Northbridge Golf Club – creating a complete lifestyle ecosystem within the suburb boundaries.

This self-contained amenity approach is replicated across Australia’s prestige residential markets:

  • Melbourne: Toorak’s proximity to private schools and shopping precincts
  • Brisbane: New Farm’s river access, dining and cultural facilities
  • Perth: Cottesloe’s beach access and established retail strips
  • Adelaide: Unley’s park access and established commercial areas

The community aspect is particularly important for family-oriented prestige markets. Northbridge’s “distinct sense of community” is a common characteristic across Australia’s most sustainable luxury suburbs. These areas maintain their appeal across market cycles because they offer complete lifestyle solutions rather than just expensive housing.

Transport connectivity also plays a crucial role. Northbridge’s position approximately 8km from Sydney’s CBD, with established transport routes, mirrors the connectivity premium we observe in equivalent suburbs across Australian capitals.

What should buyers and investors understand about Australia’s prestige residential market outlook?

The outlook for prestige residential markets across Australia remains strong, driven by fundamental supply and demand imbalances. Northbridge exemplifies the key characteristics that will continue supporting premium values: established reputation, scarcity and limited developable land, natural amenity and strong community infrastructure.

Market performance varies by city – 2024 data by PropTrack shows Perth (+18.74%), Adelaide (+14.64%) and Brisbane (+12.56%) recording stronger growth rates than Sydney and Melbourne in the past year. However, absolute values and transaction volumes in Sydney and Melbourne’s premium suburbs continue to set national benchmarks.

The increasing prevalence of off-market transactions in premium suburbs suggests sophisticated buyer activity and continued strong demand. When exceptional properties like Northbridge’s waterfront estates do come to market, they’re achieving prices that reflect both scarcity value and long-term holding appeal.

For buyers, understanding the local micro-market dynamics is crucial. Streets like Northbridge’s Coolawin Road command premiums based on specific attributes – waterfront access, view lines and land size – that may not be replicated even within the same suburb.

From an investment perspective, Australia’s prestige residential markets benefit from the lifestyle migration patterns we continue to observe, particularly the preference for family-oriented suburbs with natural amenity and established infrastructure.

Charter Keck Cramer’s experienced professionals leverage extensive local market knowledge to deliver reliable advice and market-oriented outcomes, positioning us as the trusted choice for Prestige Residential Property Valuations across Australia’s premium markets.

Get in touch with Scott Braid today!

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Project Delivery, Cost Pressures & Construction Trends https://charterkc.com.au/project-delivery-cost-pressures-construction-trends/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=project-delivery-cost-pressures-construction-trends https://charterkc.com.au/project-delivery-cost-pressures-construction-trends/#respond Mon, 18 Aug 2025 05:25:13 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=17251 19 August 2025 In conversation with Sufian Sulaiman We sat down with Sufian Sulaiman, Director | Quantity Surveyor at Charter Keck Cramer, to get his insights on the cost pressures shaping Melbourne’s construction sector, the evolving nature of project delivery and the trends that will define future-ready developments. 1. What are some of the biggest … Continued

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19 August 2025

In conversation with Sufian Sulaiman

We sat down with Sufian Sulaiman, Director | Quantity Surveyor at Charter Keck Cramer, to get his insights on the cost pressures shaping Melbourne’s construction sector, the evolving nature of project delivery and the trends that will define future-ready developments.

1. What are some of the biggest cost pressures you’re seeing in construction projects across Melbourne right now, and how are clients navigating these challenges?

The biggest cost pressures are coming from trade shortages, rising labour and preliminaries, and the ongoing risk of contractor insolvencies. While material prices have eased from pandemic highs, quarterly increases are still evident, and new National Construction Code requirements are adding further design and compliance costs. Contractors are tendering more cautiously, often including higher risk allowances.

Clients are responding by engaging the market earlier, through early contractor involvement or two-stage tenders, to identify buildability issues upfront and reduce pricing uncertainty. They are also exploring non-traditional financing models that support contractor cashflow, while adopting smarter contract structures, realistic programming and proactive value management to keep projects on track.

Quantity Surveyors play a critical role, providing benchmarking against live tender data, stress-testing budgets for compliance and substitutions, leading value management initiatives, advising on escalation and contingencies and guiding contract strategies such as contract payment terms, etc. A Quantity Surveyors’ input gives clients clarity and confidence to make informed decisions in what is a very complex market.

2. From your perspective, how has project delivery evolved in recent years, and what are some of the common risks or inefficiencies that can derail a project if not managed well?

In recent years, project delivery in Melbourne has evolved significantly under market pressures. While traditional lump-sum procurement remains common, there is a growing shift toward early contractor involvement, two-stage tenders and collaborative contracting, which help address buildability, align design with tight budgets and share risk amid cost escalation, supply chain issues and contractor insolvencies. There is also more emphasis on realistic programming, digital tools, modular or prefabricated solutions and structured value management to improve efficiency and certainty.

Common risks and inefficiencies include:

Inadequate cost planning: Failing to engage Quantity Surveyors early can lead to designs exceeding budgets, causing late-stage redesigns or scope cuts.

Ineffective procurement strategies: Failing to secure key trades or materials early leaves projects vulnerable to price increases and delays. Additionally, poor cashflow management can hinder progress by preventing the timely engagement of critical trades.

Overly optimistic programmes: Compressing timelines without factoring in design development, regulatory requirements or supply chain realities often causes delays and cost overruns.

Contractor and subcontractor fragility: With insolvencies still elevated, not conducting proper financial due diligence can expose projects to major disruptions.

Poor contracting payment terms: Contract payment terms misaligned with client funding, which can disrupt cashflow and delay progress.

3. You’ve worked across a diverse range of sectors, from aged care and healthcare to commercial and master planned communities. Are there any common trends or cost considerations that cut across these sectors right now?

Across all sectors we are seeing similar pressures such as labour shortages, material costs that continue to increase and more stringent regulatory requirements like sustainability and energy efficiency standards. These factors are impacting budgets no matter the asset type. In response, clients are focusing on value management early, engaging Quantity Surveyors from the outset to stress-test costs, and using procurement strategies such as two-stage tenders or early contractor involvement to de-risk pricing. Flexibility on specifications, realistic programming and keeping a close eye on contractor solvency are also common priorities across the board.

4. With ongoing conversations around red tape and delays in planning and approvals, how is that impacting construction timelines and what should stakeholders be aware of early in a project?

Delays in planning and approvals can push projects back before construction even starts, affecting procurement, contractor availability and budgets. Stakeholders should plan realistically, engage regulators and consultants early and involve Quantity Surveyors to assess cost and contingency impacts. Building these factors into the programme upfront helps manage risk and keeps projects moving more smoothly.

5. Looking ahead, what do you think will define a well-managed, future-ready construction project and how can QSs help clients stay ahead of the curve?

A future-ready project achieves a balance between cost certainty, programme reliability and flexibility, while incorporating sustainability, digital technologies and modern construction approaches such as modular or prefabricated solutions. Quantity Surveyors assist clients in staying ahead by benchmarking costs, stress-testing budgets, guiding value management, advising on escalation and contingencies and developing contract strategies with a focus on risk management.

As Quantity Surveyors we also provide support for pre- and post-contract due diligence, including contractor evaluation, reviewing the adequacy of design documentation, verifying that appropriate performance security and insurance are incorporated into the building contract, providing guidance on budget sufficiency, aligning contract payment terms with available funding, reporting on approvals compliance and assisting with programme and cashflow forecasting. This enables clients to understand potential risks, make informed decisions to mitigate them and maintain project resilience in a rapidly changing market.

At Charter Keck Cramer, our Quantity Surveying team partners with clients to navigate complexity, manage risk and deliver certainty. If you’d like to learn more about how we can support your next project, please get in touch with Sufian Sulaiman today!

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Australian Retail Update & Outlook https://charterkc.com.au/retail-update-outlook/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=retail-update-outlook https://charterkc.com.au/retail-update-outlook/#respond Tue, 08 Jul 2025 23:45:41 +0000 https://charterkc.com.au/?p=17054 9 July 2025 In conversation with Don Foulds We sat down with Don Foulds, National Director | Retail Advisory at Charter Keck Cramer, to get his insights on the current state of the Australian retail property market, emerging trends, and the outlook for the sector over the next 6–12 months. How would you describe the … Continued

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9 July 2025

In conversation with Don Foulds

We sat down with Don Foulds, National Director | Retail Advisory at Charter Keck Cramer, to get his insights on the current state of the Australian retail property market, emerging trends, and the outlook for the sector over the next 6–12 months.

How would you describe the current state of the Australian retail property market, and what have been the key drivers of change over the past 12 months?

The Australian retail property market has entered a dynamic phase marked by renewed confidence, particularly in non-discretionary retail segments. Over the past 12 months, institutional investors, major REITs and private syndicates have been increasingly targeting neighbourhood and sub-regional shopping centres, driven by stable yields and resilient tenant performance. This increased competition for high-performing neighbourhood centres has compressed cap rates, particularly for prime metro assets.

New developments are challenging and there are signs construction costs are stabilising to enable these projects to commence, although often requiring revised lease renegotiations with tenants to ensure projects are viable. The widening gap between acquisition cost and replacement value (often >30%) continues to favour existing centres over new developments.

What are some of the emerging trends you’re seeing in tenant mix, leasing strategies or retail formats?

Tenant mix strategies are becoming increasingly data-driven and locally responsive. Centres that tailor their offering to the demographic profile of their catchment are outperforming expectations. For example, retailers catering to diverse ethnic communities, such as Indian and Asian grocers, are expanding rapidly, often doubling their footprint within 12 to 18 months of opening.

Leasing strategies are evolving in response to cost-of-living pressures, with a clear emphasis on securing a strong base of non-discretionary retailers. Investors continue to favour centres anchored by supermarkets, fresh food and essential services, while maintaining a balanced mix that includes complementary discretionary retail.

Meanwhile, high-performing brands like Mecca are emerging as key players, leveraging innovative branding, digital engagement and premium in-store experiences to drive customer loyalty and set new benchmarks in discretionary retail.

Retail formats are also shifting, with many tenants reducing store sizes to manage occupancy costs while maintaining sales performance. This trend is particularly evident in categories like discount variety, where operators are adopting more efficient layouts to maximise turnover within a smaller footprint.

How are shifting consumer behaviours, including online spending and cost-of-living pressures affecting retail asset performance and investor sentiment?

The major retailers, particularly supermarkets are maintaining three platforms to service customers – bricks, pickup and delivery. Online sales for supermarkets continue to grow, now accounting for approximately 8% of total sales, with consistent compound growth year on year. Interestingly, most landlords have embraced the shift and worked with tenants to provide drive through and drive-up options. A benefit is a high proportion of pick-up customers also walk into the centre to complete their shop, supporting other retail.

It is of no surprise that customers are prioritising spending on essential services due to cost-of-living pressures. In turn, supermarkets are focusing on their lower cost home brand range and loyalty programs. Loyalty programs are evolving into digital ecosystems. Woolworths’ Everyday Rewards and Coles’ Flybuys are not only driving repeat visitation but are being monetised via data analytics and targeted partnerships, contributing to non-core revenue streams.

As previously mentioned, investors are increasingly focused on centres that strike a strong balance between non-discretionary and discretionary retail. Asset performance is being underpinned not only by tenant mix but also by landlords who are actively investing in the customer experience, through centre upgrades, placemaking initiatives and curated retail offerings that foster community engagement. In a competitive and cost-conscious environment, these factors are becoming key differentiators that drive foot traffic, tenant retention and long-term value.

What is the outlook for key retail asset types (e.g. neighbourhood centres, Major Activity Centres and large format) in the next 6–12 months?

The outlook for retail assets over the next 6–12 months remains generally positive, with continued investor interest in well-located, resilient formats.

Neighbourhood centres continue to be highly sought after, underpinned by strong-performing supermarkets and exposure to non-discretionary spending. These centres have proven their resilience in volatile market conditions and remain a key focus for institutional and private investors, contributing to further yield compression in prime locations.

Major Activity Centres are undergoing a structural shift. Increasingly, new developments are being delivered without traditional discount department store (DDS) anchors, reflecting evolving consumer behaviours and retailer strategies. A key challenge will be ensuring that town planning controls keep pace with these changes, enabling more flexible and mixed-use outcomes to support long-term viability.

Large Format Retail (LFR) has stabilised following the oversupply period driven by the exit of Masters Hardware. Leasing demand remains strong, particularly from value-focused categories such as furniture, automotive, and homewares, with brands like Bunnings, TK Maxx and Spotlight actively expanding. While rental growth remains modest, assets in strategic locations are experiencing increased interest due to their adaptability and relatively low occupancy costs.

Across the board, new development remains constrained by elevated construction costs and feasibility challenges. However, undersupply in high-growth corridors, particularly in Queensland and outer metropolitan Melbourne, is expected to drive targeted development activity, particularly where population growth and infrastructure investment support long-term demand.

Investor sentiment continues to favour assets with strong covenants, sustainable foot traffic and exposure to essential retail. As a result, growth opportunities are emerging in outer metro and regional markets, where long-term fundamentals remain compelling despite short-term macroeconomic pressures.

How are retailers and landlords responding to current challenges through redevelopment, repositioning or joint ventures?

Retailers and landlords are actively evolving their strategies in response to economic pressures, changing consumer behaviours, and a shifting retail landscape. Redevelopment, repositioning and joint ventures are central to unlocking value and future-proofing assets.

Redevelopment and repositioning efforts are focused on adapting existing centres to meet contemporary consumer expectations. This includes enhancing food and beverage offerings, introducing service-based tenants, improving amenity and accessibility, and investing in placemaking to create more engaging, community-focused environments. Underutilised retail space is increasingly being repurposed into medical, allied health, fitness, education or coworking uses, providing consistent foot traffic and diversifying income streams.

Mixed-use development is also becoming more sophisticated, with retail increasingly integrated into broader precincts incorporating residential, healthcare, education and commercial uses. These developments offer the potential for higher land utilisation and more resilient long-term returns. However, successfully integrating these diverse uses requires careful design and planning to resolve competing needs around logistics, noise, activation, and operational management.

Joint ventures between landlords, residential developers and institutional capital are becoming more common, particularly in high-density areas where retail podiums are paired with Build-to-Rent or Build-to-Sell residential above. The most successful outcomes emerge where alignment between stakeholders is established early, ensuring commercial objectives and design intent are shared from the outset.

Overall, the focus has shifted from retail as a standalone asset to retail as a component of larger, integrated destinations that respond to evolving community needs and urban growth.

Are you seeing increased interest in any locations from investors or developers, either domestically or internationally?

Yes, we’re continuing to see heightened interest in growth corridors across South-East Queensland, Western Sydney, and outer metropolitan Melbourne. These areas are benefiting from strong population growth, major housing developments, and significant infrastructure investment, factors that underpin long-term demand for essential retail services. In particular, neighbourhood and sub-regional centres anchored by supermarkets and medical offerings are in high demand due to their resilience and alignment with daily consumer needs.

Domestically, institutional investors and private syndicates are actively pursuing assets in these corridors, often in anticipation of future urban growth and changing retail dynamics.

From an international perspective, Australia’s retail market remains attractive to capital from Singapore, Canada and the UAE, among others. These investors continue to view Australian retail, particularly non-discretionary focused centres with long WALEs and inflation-linked leases, as a defensive and stable asset class. In some cases, offshore capital is entering the market via joint ventures with local partners who bring development expertise and market insight.

This increased interest is contributing to competitive bidding environments for quality assets and, in some locations, is helping to accelerate retail-led mixed-use development activity where planning frameworks support higher-density outcomes.

Get in touch with Don Foulds today!

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